Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Asteroid 2007 Tu24 Getting Closer

tu24-asteroid1This site was developed in response to a potential threat posed by the impact of asteroids TU24, but because it's an interesting topic to follow in the coming weeks, as is his way around the orbit.

Supposedly, there is no chance that the impact of this asteroid with the Earth. I find that very strange, as such asteroids are, of course, not on pre-determined tracks as we have seen from this article talks about the chances of another asteroid impact on Mars:
... Pre-discovery observations of asteroid 2007 WD5, recorded on 8 November 2007 have refined its orbit, and the uncertainties for the Mars late January meeting have been improved. The impact probability, resulting from the recent refinement orbit has become a surprising 3.9% (approximately 1 in 25 chance of winning) ...



I think we are of the opinion that a potentially deadly object discovered only a few months with no risk. This is not the first time an asteroid, the researchers by surprise. Asteroid 2002 EM7 was in the news a few years:
If it pierced the atmosphere, about 70 meters long skirt would have dissolved and the unleashed energy equivalent to a 4-megaton nuclear bomb, said researchers.

"If there was in a populated area, such as Atlanta, they would have basically flattened," said Gareth Williams, associate director of the International Astronomical Union Minor Planet Center in Boston, Massachusetts.


But there is still no indication of TU24 in the news today. (Indeed, over the 2002 article was written 11 days after a possible impact.) 2002 MN also slipped through and came back with 120,000 miles from Earth. In fact, "... no one spotted asteroid 2002 MN until 17 June, three days after it accelerated the Earth 10.6 kilometers per second."

I find it hard to believe that an object in the vicinity of the Earth (NEO) 4-8x higher than in 2002 EM7 and come just as close no threat. Why is the object of NEO only with a 0% chance of influencing us? In fact, TU24 is not even on the list of NASA's Near Earth Objects. The obect, with the highest chance of an impact, 2007 VK184, coming within 0.47 astronomical units in 2053. TU24 in May, 0037 AU in a few days. We can not assume that because it is already close to the earth, it has less opportunity for the differences in the path as an object further away and thus no chance of impact.

No matter, because of the low rate of possibly impact, what I am more concerned about the unforeseen consequences which could lead to such action close. Not only electromagnetic, but also the way it could impact on the geophysical, climatic, social, religious and even political fabric of our world.

I am sure that we hear more about our little rock in the days to come from the media.

rewrite from TU24Org


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